Models running

Today's projections across the board.

Pick a sport. Open the model. Every match gets a projected result, win probabilities, and the reasoning behind them — and past projections are scored against what actually happened.

NRL 8
NBA —
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EPL —
FOOTBALL —
NFL —
NRL · ROUND 9 · SEASON 2026

Today's signals

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Projection accuracy

How accurate are the game projections?

This page grades the same game projections the dashboard shows — the predicted winner, its stated win probability, and the predicted score — locked to a versioned file while kickoff is still in the future, then settled against official final scores. Wherever market data is stored, the model is benchmarked against the bookmaker favourite on the same games, because "right more often than the market" is a claim that has to be earned, not implied. This measures projection accuracy, not betting returns. A sport with too few settled games shows its live sample count instead of a percentage — nothing here is estimated, backfilled, or illustrative.

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Today's gaps

Where the model disagrees with the market

Every priced game across every sport, ordered by how far our number sits from the bookmaker's. A gap is a disagreement between two estimates — it is not a tip, and the market is usually the closer one. Games with no published price are left out entirely rather than shown as a zero.

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