Live projections across six sports
Projections and market gaps across six sports.
A projected result, a win probability, and the distance to the market price. Every game, every round.
Projections are model estimates, not certainties. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
One game
One line, priced against the model · sample
What the gap is
Two numbers. Everything is the space between them.
- 01
The model simulates the match and produces its own probability.
- 02
The posted price implies a probability too. Invert the decimal odds and you have the market's number.
- 03
The gap is the distance between the two, in percentage points. We publish all three.
| Market | Model | Book | Gap |
|---|
Pick a sport.
Every model runs the same way. Live where the season is on, opening as each new one starts.
Read the slate
Depth is the product.
Every projection is written to a committed file before the game starts, then graded against the official result. These are the player projections, scored one stat at a time.
Player projections graded
Mean absolute error
2025-26 NBA season, 44 committed pre-slate files. Every stat projection graded against the official box score.
Directional accuracy by stat · the line is a coin flip
Every stat clears 50%. That is what the model is for, and it is a statement about the projections rather than about returns.
On whole games it is a different story: no sport has yet beaten the market’s own price. That check runs on every settled game and we publish it either way — it is on the accuracy page whether it passes or not.
AFL · this round · what the model reads before it projects
Rolling form for the players in this round's games: season average disposals, the last three, and average fantasy points. The projection is built on top of this, not instead of it.
| Player | Opponent | Disposals | Last 3 | Fantasy |
|---|
Make your own call
Put a line in. See what the model says.
Worked examples of the markets the model prices. Pick one, or type the odds you have been offered against it.
Choose a line above.
One game free. Every round.
One game per sport, every round, in full depth. The projection, the win probability, the player signals and the notes. No account, nothing held back on that game.
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